Electric Vehicle Trends 2024 – Sales of electric vehicles increased in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Here’s a look at EV market trends through 2024 in key EV regions, along with data and long-term forecasts for the top US brands.
The electric vehicle market has seen increased demand for commodities like lithium and cobalt in recent years, so electric vehicle sales are a good metric to measure the state of battery metals.
Electric Vehicle Trends 2024
However, slowing growth in EV adoption in 2023 has led to lower forecasts for EV sales this year and lower battery metal prices. Now that we’re halfway through 2024, some interesting trends have emerged that may prompt market players to rethink their EV sales forecasts.
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In addition to these factors, what are the most important electric vehicle trends to watch? Here, Investing News Network (INN) looks at what will drive the electric vehicle market to 2024 and what the future holds for the electric vehicle sector in the longer term.
While at the beginning of the year sales looked rough when looking at the numbers on a monthly basis, they grew significantly year over year. According to electric vehicle market research firm Rho Motion, sales in January fell 26 percent to 1.1 million vehicles sold compared to December, and in February they fell another 25 percent to 0.8 million vehicles sold.
However, in an annual comparison, it appears that in the first two months of the year, total sales of electric vehicles increased by 32 percent compared to the January-February period of 2023.
Sales topped the million mark again in March and the following months. By the end of May, more than 5 million electric vehicles had been sold worldwide in the first five months of the year. Compared to the same period last year, the number of electric vehicles purchased increased by 20 percent.
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However, this increase is unusual. One of the most important trends in the electric vehicle market this year is the significant difference in growth trajectories between the three main regional markets.
According to data from Rho Motion, China continues to lead the world in terms of penetration rate of electric vehicles. China’s electric vehicle market grew 31 percent in January-May compared to 2023, compared to just 5 percent in North America (excluding Mexico) and 4 percent in Europe.
Looking at May alone, sales in China were up 36 percent year-over-year. The numbers weren’t as hot in the other two major markets, which saw declines of 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
According to Charles Lester, the senior electric vehicle data analyst at Rho Motion, the U.S. and Canada “will take a hit in sales numbers this year as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) struggles to get back into the fast lane and President Biden announced tariffs on Chinese. electric for cars and imports of battery.”
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The world’s largest electric vehicle maker is China’s BYD ( OTC Pink:BYDDF , HKEX:1211 ), which launched an affordable EV model under $10,000 earlier this year. The company plans to increase annual sales by 20 percent to reach 3.6 million electric vehicles by 2024, with a target of around 500,000 units sold worldwide. BYD’s European market share reached 1 percent from about 0.5 percent in 2023, Rho Motion reported, and the company sold 176,000 units overseas in the first five months of the year.
These cheaper Chinese EV models are a problem for the other two major auto markets, North America and Europe, which are struggling to develop their own domestic electric vehicle industries to challenge China’s massive dominance of the global electric vehicle market. EV.
In May, the Biden administration effectively quadrupled tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100 percent and excluded imported electric vehicles from a $7,500 federal tax credit to protect auto industry in the U.S.
Soon after, the European Union (EU) imposed its own tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which Reuters reported ranged from 17.4 percent for BYD to 38.1 percent for SAIC Motor Company ( SHA:600104 ), one another major Chinese electric vehicle maker. This exceeds the typical 10 percent car load.
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Lester warned against EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports. “If they hope to meet their ambitious climate goals, they will want to maintain good trade relations with the fastest-growing electric vehicle market,” he said.
In late June, the Canadian government announced that it intends to protect its investment in the country’s burgeoning electric vehicle industry through new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.
“A surge in low-cost electric car imports from China will undermine everything currently being done to rebuild and grow a strong and truly national auto industry,” said Unifor President Lana Payne.
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The apparent stagnation of electric vehicle sales in the United States this year is largely due to declining demand for Tesla vehicles. In its Q1 2024 earnings report, the company reported a 13 percent year-over-year revenue decline, which is due to a more competitive electric vehicle market and more consumers choosing hybrid models over pure electric vehicles . Tesla’s deliveries fell 9 percent year over year, while total revenue fell from $23.3 billion to $21.3 billion.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk told shareholders that more affordable Tesla models are in the works and “could hit the market in early 2025, if not the end of the year.” However, in May his company laid off 10 percent of its global workforce.
According to Bloomberg, which shares data from Cox Automotive, the US auto industry authority, the road closure that Tesla had to overcome did not stop other major US electric car brands. The graph below shows that six of the top 10 brands saw electric vehicle sales in the US increase more than 50 percent year-over-year in the first quarter.
In the American electric vehicle market, Ford (NYSE:F) experienced the largest growth at 86 percent, Toyota (NYSE:TM, TSE:7203) at 85.9 percent, and Mercedes-Benz (OTC Pink:MBGAF, ETR:MBG) . at 66.9 percent, Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN ) at 58.8 percent, and Hyundai (KRX: 005380 ) and Kia (KRX: 000270 ) at 56 percent plus.
Bloomberg reporter Tom Randall pointed out that removing the quarter’s two worst-performing brands — Tesla’s 13.3 percent decline and GM’s (NYSE:GM ) 20.5 percent — results in a 23 percent increase in sales of electric vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter the same period last year. GM’s sales decline has less to do with falling demand, but rather because it stopped production of the Chevy Bolt, one of the best-selling electric vehicles in the United States. Its new electric car, the Chevy Equinox, is expected to be released in 2024.
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However, despite a good start to EV sales in 2024, both Ford and Toyota have backed away from their previously ambitious EV production goals. While Ford initially scaled back its expansion plans by the end of 2023, on June 24, the automotive giant said it will suspend the release of new battery electric vehicle (BEV) models because it does not see economic reasons. to do so in the current environment.
“We’re not going to launch a second-generation [EV] unless it’s profitable in the first year and we get a return on investment,” said John Lawler, Ford’s chief financial officer. That’s telling because it’s the second best-selling electric vehicle brand in the US by 2024.
And then there’s Toyota, which wants to push back to 2026 the planned start of electric vehicle production in the United States in 2025. In April, Toyota President Akio Toyoda expressed his company’s belief that a “multi-lane approach ” is the best way to decarbonize transport. and that “customers, not regulation or politics” will dictate the way forward. In addition to BEVs, the Japanese automaker is also focusing on hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, as well as continuing internal combustion engine (ICE) models.
What’s in store for the rest of 2024? There is still a lot of optimism for the electric vehicle market for the rest of the year.
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According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global EV Outlook 2024, released at the end of April, sales of electric vehicles worldwide will reach 17 million by the end of the year, representing one in five new vehicle purchases. .
“Electric vehicles continue to move towards becoming mass market products in more countries,” the IEA said. “Tight margins, volatile battery prices, high inflation and the phasing out of purchase incentives in some countries have raised concerns about the industry’s growth rate, but global numbers of sales remains strong.”
Going forward, the IEA expects electric vehicles to account for half of all global car sales by 2035. This figure could rise to two-thirds if governments meet their energy and innovation obligations of the climate in due time.
Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles will also require automakers to launch more affordable models that are price competitive with their internal combustion engine equivalents. China is already doing well in this area of the market; however, there is much ground to cover in the North American and European markets, which struggle with supply chain issues for EV batteries and a lack of public charging infrastructure.
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The IEA estimates that more than 60 percent of electric vehicles sold in China last year were cheaper than their ICE counterparts. Europe and USA, it depends
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